Seasons Greetings as we draw to the close of another year. Looking at my own in-box, there seem to be fewer greetings with executable attachments than last year, perhaps users are learning about the risks (or perhaps users who send me greetings just want to avoid my friendly warnings). More people are sending links to web-pages, this makes sense: it saves bandwidth if you have grown tired of animated snow and choose not the follow the link (you still got the essence of the message: holiday greeting plus senders name) and it is no more risky for the recipient than going to a web-site with a securely-configured browser.
Taking the risk of looking foolish in twelve months, I will make some predictions:
- The top virus for 2003 will still be Klez. It first appeared in October 2001, it has dominated 2002, and it shows no signs of going away. I expect it will top the monthly lists for at least seven months of the year, and still be in the top 5 next December.
- There will be a small number of viruses for PDA's or other mobile devices. They will not spread well, because the numbers and connectivity of such devices is still too restricted.
- There will be an accelerating number of security flaws found and hacking attempts on Linux and Open Source software. This is because the popularity of Linux and Open Source software will continue to grow as more realise its' advantages, thus making it a more prominent target. The Open Source Community will demonstrate its' ability to effectively deal with the security flaws.
- Email will continue to be the most common route of virus spread. I hesitate to call this a prediction, it seems so obvious, but it is really saying what will not happen: there will not be a new, wildly successful virus spreading method that overtakes email in 2003. The most common route of virus spread will change as the computing environment changes: mobile devices and .NET will increase in 2003, but won't become the mainstream.
- A major security flaw will be found in Wind… No, I'll stop before I predict that the sun will rise.
Have a safe and prosperous year.
Allan Dyer