In December 2002 I made some predictions for 2003, in our first issue of 2004 it is time to evaluate their accuracy:
- "The top virus for 2003 will still be Klez. It first appeared in October 2001, it has dominated 2002, and it shows no signs of going away. I expect it will top the monthly lists for at least seven months of the year, and still be in the top 5 next December."
Wrong. Klez.H only spent three months of 2003 at no. 1, and it faded to no. 8 by December. It was remarkably persistent, but not as extreme as I predicted. - "There will be a small number of viruses for PDA's or other mobile devices. They will not spread well, because the numbers and connectivity of such devices is still too restricted."
Wrong. Or right; if you consider zero to be "a small number". The non-existent PDA viruses certainly did not spread well. - "There will be an accelerating number of security flaws found and hacking attempts on Linux and Open Source software. This is because the popularity of Linux and Open Source software will continue to grow as more realise its' advantages, thus making it a more prominent target. The Open Source Community will demonstrate its' ability to effectively deal with the security flaws."
Partially Right. There have been some prominent security flaws in Linux and Open Source software, but not enough to justify "an accelerating number". Those that have been found have been dealt with effectively. - "Email will continue to be the most common route of virus spread. I hesitate to call this a prediction, it seems so obvious, but it is really saying what will not happen: there will not be a new, wildly successful virus spreading method that overtakes email in 2003. The most common route of virus spread will change as the computing environment changes: mobile devices and .NET will increase in 2003, but won't become the mainstream."
Right. We are still getting most of our viruses in email.
Conclusion: The future is uncertain.